“Independently audited” PPM stats from Southeastern: Lies

Yes, a rather brazen subject, and something that could, if the numbers can work that way, could be wrong.

However this: if Southeastern can provide the independent audit document, associated numbers, and an additionally independent source to verify these numbers, then I’ll happily donate £250 (the money I saved by not buying an annual ticket last year) to the charity of their choice.

So let’s begin.

We have already covered that the Period 9 and Period 8 posters show the same stats by line of route, to one decimal place: https://www.drta.org.uk/112/ppm-posters-what-can-you-trust/

Today our contact at Southeastern (‘Public Affairs Manager’) contacted us affirming that the both posters are indeed accurate, and to quote:

Regarding your recent tweets,performance figures are independently audited and we are satisfied they are accurate.”

So let’s break this down:

The Period 8 poster at Dartford:

IMG_9916

Overall: 82.2%
Mainline: 80.7%
HS: 80.9%
Metro: 83.3%

The ‘Period 9’ poster at Charing Cross:

IMG_0074

Overall: 80.9%
Mainline: 80.71%
HS: 80.85%
Metro: 83.32%

Those numbers are very similar, right?

Of course they are. because they are the same

Apart from Overall – which has fallen by 1.3%

So let’s take a 90;10 split Mainline:HS) to get an average of that for each period we get:
Period 8 (Mainline, HS 90:10): 80.72%
Period 9: 80.88%

Imagine if that split worked, and it was then an equal split of (mainline+HS1):metro, then:
X(80.72)+(1-X)(83.30)=82.2
equates X at 0.426

Let’s do this for ‘Period 9’:

X(80.88)+(1-X)(83.32)=80.9
equates X at 0.99

So the weighting for mainline, if the ‘indepedently audited’ poster for Period 9 is correct, has increased by 232% in favour of mainline over metro. Which is the only way the overall figure can decrease

Which must be a VERY significant decrease in Metro services during Period 9

Now, we all know that there wasn’t a significant decrease in Metro, even if Southeastern wanted to count out some trains through emergency timetables etc. (I can’t recall any)

 

I can only conclude that, as cited before, the posters that Southeastern have posted for ‘Period 9’ are inaccurate, not representative of the truth, and not independently audited.

 

As stated above, I am very happy to be proved wrong. In fact I hope I can be proved wrong, because if not, then Southeastern are breaking their franchise agreement by not posting up the correct stats at stations. And also breaking their own passenger charter.

 

So how about this Southeastern, prove me wrong since you’re “satisfied they are accurate”, and I’ll happily donate £250 to the charity of your choice.

Or if you can’t, let’s be fair about this, and donate the same amount to a charity of my choosing?

It’s only fair, right?

 

Over to you…

Posted in Dartford permalink

About Phil Rogers

Co-founder of Dartford Rail Travellers Association. A weekday commuter into London Charing Cross, since 2001, and campaigner for better services for Dartford Rail users. Makes occasional appearances on radio and the local press.

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